Wednesday, November 3, 2010

I have made an important discovery…that alcohol, taken in sufficient quantities, produces all the effects of intoxication. -Oscar Wilde

Since everyone seems to have an opinion, I feel I may as well share mine. For 22 years I have called Cullman my home. My family has been a part of the community for over 100 years. During this time the community did not sell alcohol. We are talking a Prohibition-of-sorts that extended into the 21st century. You could consume alcohol here, just not purchase it.

Every few years the vote to repeal the ban on the sale of alcohol pops back on the agenda. Until this year such votes meant very little to me. I wasn’t 21. I could not legally purchase alcohol, so why should I care?

Here is the disclaimer you knew I would make:
I like politics.
I like economics.
I like business (I am 5 months shy of having TWO degrees in the discipline).

As the war raged between the “Keep Cullman Special” vote NO advocates and the “We want a Red Lobster” vote YES supporters, I finally decided to do my own research. Setting my moral inclinations aside, I finally made my decision based mostly off of ECONOMICS.

Many vote YES supporters spouted that Cullman will now attract multiple food establishments and big-box retailers that once passed-over the quaint town. I keep hearing buzz about companies such as Target, Publix, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, etc. I hate to burst the bubble of most of these individuals and I may be completely wrong, but here is my rant of why I think that will never transpire.

First:
We must examine the socio-economic structure of Cullman. We are a mostly rural, small town with limited industry. Most individuals do not earn $100K plus per year. Since the 2010 census info is not yet reported, I am basing my data off of 2000. As of 2000, the median household income of Cullman was roughly $30,000. About 9.50% of families and 13.00% of the population were below the poverty line. Compare this to areas such as Decatur where the median household income is roughly $47,000.

That is a $17,000 income difference.

Second:
We must look at the requirements of various retail and food chains. Most have what would be termed “traffic requirements.” This means that they collect data from the city or from outside research that tells them how many individuals within the community or outside (random travelers from the interstate, etc) would come through the store or restaurant. They also examine if the socio-economic growth within the community would sustain an expansion effort. Case-in-point—visit our Wal-Mart then visit Gardendale’s Wal-Mart. You will notice a considerable difference in merchandise and store layout. This is because of both the traffic and socio-economic factors.

Basing my thought process off the two points above, we are not PRIME REAL-ESTATE for chain retailers and restaurants. Even with legalized alcohol sales, we do not have the industry to provide the income for purchasing power. It is a circular argument. Alcohol does not provide income. Industry does. Industry will not come if an industrial foundation does not exist.

I saw on an individual’s Facebook that she felt that someone had shot Barney Fife with his last remaining bullet. Someone else responded that perhaps it was Otis who did it. If you have no clue what this means, check this out. Maybe this is a bit dramatic, but our town just voted one of the last Mayberry’s out of existence. After living in a larger city for four years, I do not understand the hype about a Target. We have one twenty minutes away. If my analysis is wrong and big box retailers such as Target and chain restaurants such as Red Lobster move-in, smaller places that make Cullman unique may not survive. Some of those places barely survived the first few years of our Wal-Mart Super Center.

Putting moral objections aside again, I can’t help but be disgusted that so many individuals did not GOOGLE the companies they hoped would make Cullman their next landing zone. If so, they easily would have found the same data I did. We won’t attract a place such as The Summit in Birmingham or Bridge Street in Huntsville. We’ll attract ANOTHER strip mall.

Maybe it is too late for our little Mayberry-ish town. The dooms-day talk is a little exaggerated, but I will concede that we will never be the same. Economics involves a lot of uncontrollable factors—the invisible hand theory, if you will. I know my analysis may be completely off, but so may that of those who truly believe if you build it they will come.

So, that is my two cents worth. And truly, anything I say is worth about that much. If anything, I inspired someone to play devil’s advocate within his or her own mind. I leave you with this little Andy Griffith Show gem...

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